Optimism wrapped in an Anxiety

SALAM SUCCESS .... we meet again ... congratulations to read the article say,,, in 2010 living among day.Every count, both governments and observers, are equally convinced economic outlook next year is better than this year.

Year 2010 live count of day.Every circles,both governments and observers, are equally convinced economic outlook next year is better than this year.


Survey of some international agencies also say the same. But for Indonesia, the optimism that emerged due to the global economy better than expected this year seemed to start faded.

Economic growth is believed to be still on top this year, but could be missed leap government alleged. Until the end of the national economy could reach at least 4.3%, according to the target Budget State Changes (Revised) 2009.While next year is targeted to reach 5.5%.

If you watched the news that emerged since the mid-2010 when the shadow economy began much buzzed, the inhibiting factors of growth was beginning to shift. Since the investigation of the case removed to the Century Bank of the Special Committee on Rights Questionnaire Parliament, the fate of the economy in 2010 is no longer much associated with the global economic conditions.

These external factors are no longer important, but the recovery out there are considered useless because Indonesia is feared can not use the momentum. Politisasi Century case is believed to be a stumbling block to Indonesia for the jump in economic growth rates higher.

This indirectly made by the Minister of Finance (Finance) Sri Mulyani Indrawati said after meeting with representatives of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) foreigners in Indonesia last week. He said, strengthening the momentum of economic growth next year could be disrupted if the political problems in the country is not resolved quickly. Finance minister does not want that to cause a negative perception among market players because a lot of positive momentum in the next year as the global economic recovery.

"Export Performance in 2010 such imports would be better than this year," he said. So even with the capital inflows are highly sensitive to investor perceptions. According to Sri Mulyani, a lot of positive sentiment in the country for such investments trigger election results some time ago, 100-day program, and the desire to accelerate economic growth.

"It really gives a positive sentiment. Hence if a protracted political will affect the prospects of capital inflow (capital flows), "he said. Representative Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) Indonesia's foreign and National Banking Association (Perbanas), information minister, had conveyed his concern related to political conditions in the country.

"That is tandatanda of credit expansion and investment that seems to be postponed because there was something not right," he added. If this continues until only one quarter of next year, prospects for recovery of the overall credit expansion and capital flows will terganggu.Sri Mulyani said, when combined with external factors ie the movement of the dollar which is still seeking a new equilibrium, the national economy faces many uncertainties of the domestic and conditions external.

"When viewed from that, it means that 2010 is more challenging conditions when viewed from the side of price stability is inflation," he added. Economic observers from Econit Saparini Hendri said, the impact of Century case is not playing to the economy, especially Finance Minister had leaked personal problems with Aburizal Bakrie told a newspaper published by the United States Wall Street Journal.

In an interview published last December 11 that, Sri Mulyani, who claimed the case to discredit himself Century begins its inconsistence with the Chairman of the Golkar Aburizal Bakrie. "This will continue to be a business concern," said Hendri. He said, matter Century, now called Bank of the Pearl, have quickly resolved without any engineering solution politik.Jika this case does not touch the root of the problem, dissatisfaction of the public also will continue rolling parliament.

"And this will interfere with the effectiveness of government work ahead," he added. For foreign investors, representatives of the American Chambers says James Castle, Century problem solving protracted investment climate is disturbing. He reported, a number of new investors stopped herself to invest in Indonesia after seeing Century protracted cases.

Century cases, he said, suggesting the lack the legal process in Indonesia, so affects the investment interest that some foreign investors who had been under the direction of interest to other countries. Special Staff of the Minister of Finance (Finance) Chatib Basri said, the doubts arise because of Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Ministry of Finance did not dare to be feared if there is a lot more action kolaps.Pengambilan banks feared to question again.

And when the BI and the Ministry of Finance no longer dare to take action, efforts to rescue the financial sector that was not there. Not synchrons seen here between the government's desire to achieve high economic growth, distant quality to what is done to catch up. Hundred Days Program United Indonesia Cabinet (KiB) II is still running and has claimed a number of targets completed.

Coordinating Minister Hatta Rajasa was revealed, the revision of Presidential Decree No 67 / 2005 on Cooperation with the Government of Private Enterprises in the Provision of Infrastructure conducted. Land acquisition problems have also decided that the solution is no longer discourage investment. On one side of the devices prepared investment angler, but on the other side of the case instead politicized Century, making investors question the political stability in the country.

Then what good will this set of equitmens? It is unfortunate if the speech at the opening Hatta Rajasa Investment Award in 2009 some time ago. Hatta discourse when it says, the investment growth target in 2010 of 7% compared to this year expected only about 3%. In 2014 the average expected above 12 -15%.

With double-digit investment growth, Hatta said, the rate of the national economy forward is expected to be supported by investment and investment needs ekspor.Goverment counted until 2014 to reach Rp2.000 trillion per year to economic growth reached 7% in the next five years. From that need, the government is only able to provide funds so that the remaining 17-20% should be sought from the private, banking, and foreign investment.

Regardless of the Century, another risk that overshadow the economic growth next year including rising commodity prices could trigger inflation, and financial sectors mentioned Mandiri Securities research is still fragile, so uncertain ending this global crisis are still high. From within the country, Independent mentions, there is risk financing as growing fiscal debt maturing in 2010.

The opportunity to boost the national economy from the global economic recovery expectations. International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the global economy will grow around 3.1% in 2010 compared to this year's projected -1.1%. The growth of the global economy is more driven by the rate of the economy in the region developing countries, especially Asia.

In line with this, research Mandiri Securities said, the perception of risk in emerging market regions, especially Asia improves, so will encourage the flow of funds to developing countries. Global economic recovery would also encourage demand for imports that can terdongkrak export performance.

Economic observers from the University of Atmajaya Prasetyantoko Augustine said, Indonesia's economy really has tremendous potential to grow taller. Strong domestic demand with a population of 200 million people through the power of the national economy.

In addition, Indonesia is also considered to reform the bureaucracy properly. "If this all goes in the track that should, no political cases, the more progressive reform, a lot of potential that could come true,